Wednesday, June 12, 2019 - Article by: Mark Hemingway - Security Financial Services, LLC -
Consumer inflation remained tame in May as rising food prices were offset by a decline in the price of gasoline at the pumps. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% in May after a 0.3% gain in April. The Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, matched estimates of 0.2%, as an increase in food prices were offset by declining prices at the gas pumps. Year-over-year CPI rose 1.8% from April's 1.9% while the Core rate increased 2% from 2.1%. Low inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on course this year to cut interest rates. The uncertainty surrounding trade tensions with Mexico and China last week along with weaker than expected job growth pushed mortgage rates lower falling a sizable amount in the last two weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell eleven basis points to 4.12% with 0.33 in points in the week ended May 31, 2019. In addition, the Refinance Index soared nearly 47% while the Purchase Index jumped 10%. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for jumbo loans fell to 4.04% with 0.17 in points. The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. US stocks are lower this morning after the big gains seen in June thus far. The closely watched S&P 500 gained 6% from the close of 2,744 on June 3 until yesterday's intraday high of 2,910 when the rally faded as investors looked to book some short-term profits. With stocks near all-time highs, small business and consumer confidence near record highs, low inflation and a growing economy, the "Goldilocks" economy marches on with the odds of a near-term recession low.
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