Friday, December 3, 2010 - Article by: Dan the loanman - E Mortgage Capital, Inc. -
We talked about market volatility yesterday remaining extreme over the next week or so; today's Nov employment report set it up. A huge miss on estimates from analysts and economists; as we always note, trying to predict employment is difficult if not impossible. The Nov unemployment rates was widely expected to be unchanged, it jumped 0.2% to 9.8% the highest in months. Total non-farm job growth widely believed to have increased 140K were up just 39K; private non-farm jobs were expected up 145K, we got only 50K. Oct non-farm jobs were revised from 151K to +172K and Sept non farm jobs revised from -41K to -24K. The better revisions to Oct and Sept were a glimmer of a bright spot but the Nov data shocked markets. Manufacturing jobs dropped by 13,000 in November, the most in three months, economists had projected an increase of 5,000. Employment at service-providers increased 54,000. The number of temporary workers rose 39,500. Construction companies subtracted 5,000 workers and retailers let go 28,100 workers. No matter how its sliced, the employment report has thrown a wet blanket over al the recent more positive economic data that had sent equity markets exploding this week and interest rates up. With job markets still soft the US economy isn't likely to sustain any substantial growth. Looking for anything positive from the data this morning, the upward revisions in Oct and Sept is about it. Prior to the 8:30 employment report mortgage prices started down 15/32 (.47 bp) frm yesterday's generally unchanged prices; the 10 yr note yield was trading at 3.04% +4 bp. By 9:15 the 10 yr note yield had rallied back to 2.93% -7 bp and mortgage prices +24/32 (.75 bp) frm yesterday's close. Stock indexes got hit, at 9:15 the DJIA traded -55 points. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -40, 10 yr +17/32 at 2.93% -7 bp and mortgage prices +12/32 (.65 bp) frm yesterday's close.
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