MONDAY, November 26th The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.4% in September from August and was up 3.0% from September one year ago. The monthly gain was in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, home prices were higher in 18 of the 20 metro areas tracked. New York had the largest year-over-year decline at 2.5% while Phoenix had the largest yearly increase of 20.4%. Home prices rose solidly again in September for the eighth month in a row and in most major metro areas possibly signaling that the housing market has indeed turned the corner. Housing has a ways to go before becoming robust; nationwide, home prices are similar to levels last seen in August 2003.

TUESDAY, November 27th Consumer confidence edged slightly higher in November to its highest level in nearly four years. The consumer confidence index rose to 73.7% this month from a reading of 73.1% in October. Higher confidence levels may well be reflecting lower gas prices recently. Lower prices at the pump and improved confidence levels may result in stronger consumer spending this holiday shopping season.

WEDNESDAY, November 28th The MBA mortgage applications index fell 0.9% to 838.9% for the week ending November 23. The purchase index rose 2.6% on the week and is up 7.4% from one year ago. The refinance index fell 1.5% on the week but remains 61.4% higher on the year. Mortgage application activity continues to be supported by historically low interest rates. Contract mortgage rates slipped again last week with the 30-year fixed down 1 bps to 2.53%. New home sales fell 0.3% in October to an annual rate of 368k missing expectations for a bigger increase to a rate of 390K. A large 5.7% gain in September was downwardly revised to just 0.8%. Because new home sales are counted when sales contracts are signed, these data reflect current sales activity. New home sales are now 17.2% above their year ago level and continue to trend modestly higher. Regionally, sales were mixed with a 62.2% surge in the Midwest and an 8.8% increase in the West. New home sales plunged 32.3% in the Northeast and were down 11.6% in the South. New home sales slipped in October probably as an effect of Hurricane Sandy. However, over the past 18 months new home sales have been gently rising from a very low level. Recent signs of life in homebuilder sentiment and new construction starts combined with record low inventories suggest new home sales and prices could gain traction and continue to move up this year.

THURSDAY, November 29th Jobless claims fell 23k to 393k for the week ending November 24. Initial claims data remain elevated and are still unwinding from the effects of Hurricane Sandy which could last for several more weeks. Despite a lot of volatility, the underlying trend in jobless claims has been relatively unchanged with a weekly average of 376k so far this year. Claims are trending lower overall though, but at a very slow pace. The economy was stronger in the third quarter than first estimated. Q3 GDP was estimated to have grown at a 2.7% rate of growth last quarter, up from the original, advance estimate of 2.0%. This revision suggests that the economy gained momentum at the end of the third quarter; however, the bulk of the gain was due to a sharp upward revision in inventory investment; consumer, business and government spending actually slowed. The composition of the data indicates still moderate, albeit steady economic growth.

FRIDAY, November 30th Personal income was unchanged in October and is now 3.1% above its year ago level. Both wages and salaries and transfer payments fell on the month. Consumer spending declined 0.2% last month, perhaps reflecting sluggish income growth. Spending is also up 3.1% over the past year. Hurricane Sandy is likely to have dampened income and spending growth in October. Abstracting from the effects of the storm, personal income and spending growth trend has been has been fairly flat, growing at just a modest pace in the last couple of years.