Wednesday, January 9, 2013 - Article by: Carlo Sanchez - Security National Mortgage Company -
Mortgage rates held to their bargain basement lows this week, slipping to 3.34 percent for a 30-year fixed loan and continuing a trend that is expected to last at least through the end of the year.
For Florida homebuyers searching in a low-inventory market the prediction of prolonged discounted rates should reduce the urgency to purchase, but it is also a sign that the economic recovery will be a slow slog back to average.
And with record low mortgage rates come low interest rates on such items as a CD or money market account -- bad news for savers.
"Economic growth will be stronger in 2013, but not like a rocket. It will be a gradual build," said John Tuccillo, chief economist for the Florida Realtors. "In a down economy, there is lower demand for credit and interest rates remain low."
Federal mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average interest rate this week fell to 3.34 percent from 3.35 percent last week. The lowest rate recorded since 1971 was 3.31 percent reached in November.
Overall, 2012 saw the lowest average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on record at 3.66 percent. The highest annual average was 16.63 percent in 1981, according to Freddie Mac.
While not the main driving factor, today's low rates were one reason homebuyer Keith Stewart began looking for properties three months ago.
The 43-year-old chef, who is working with Realtor Bob Graeve of Illustrated Properties in Palm Beach Gardens, found a short sale he likes in Riviera Beach and is waiting for the bank to approve his offer of $138,000.
With a 20 percent down payment and an 800-plus credit score, Stewart said his interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 3.23 percent.
"I wanted to get in before things changed, but for me if the interest rate went up a half a percentage point, it wouldn't be a big deal," Stewart said. "I feel like I really have a year timeline to work with."
Economists generally agree interest rates will fluctuate little in the coming months and possibly through 2014 when National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Crowe predicts they may drift up to 5 percent.
"Basically, that's just from the fact that I expect the overall economy to grow and as more businesses expand there will be greater demand for funds," Crowe said.
Two benchmarks, unemployment and inflation, are indicators for when interest rates will begin to rise, said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for Bankrate.com in North Palm Beach.
The Federal Reserve has set a national unemployment rate of 6.5 percent and an inflation rate of 2.5 percent as signs that rates can increase, McBride said. The national unemployment rate for December was 7.8 percent. Inflation was recorded at 1.8 percent in November.
"Borrowers have some runway ahead of them in terms of paying down debt or borrowing cheap money," McBride said.
But people trying to save money are going to have another "lousy" year, McBride said.
The average annual yield on a one-year CD fell from 0.34 percent to 0.28 between January and December last year, according to Bankrate.com. The average for a five-year CD dropped from 1.16 percent to 0.9 percent during the same time.
"It's mainly because the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates low and loan demand is still pretty weak," McBride said.
Crowe and Tuccillo both said the lack of access to credit has become the primary determinant of home buying, not credit interest rates.
Banks have clamped down on the free-wheeling loans offered during the real estate boom and aren't likely to loosen up much until regulations in the massive Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act are better spelled out, Crowe said. Issues yet to be defined would affect what kind of capital banks will need to cover risks and include what recourse consumers have if they find they have an unaffordable mortgage.
Also, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increasingly returned mortgages to their originators that they believe have errors.
"The bank is not particularly interested in getting those loans back," Crowe said. "That's why the mortgage application process is an inquisition."
That hasn't been the experience for everyone.
First-time homebuyer Dennis MacDonald closed on a Royal Palm Beach home in October with a 3.5 percent interest rate and very little hassle, he said. His home search lasted about a year in a market with a dwindling supply. The inventory of Palm Beach County single-family homes for sale in November was 4.7 months, a 54 percent decrease from the same time last year.
"I've heard the stories about people having to submit tons and tons of paperwork for their mortgage, but I didn't feel like it was anything out of the ordinary," said MacDonald, who has a credit score of about 740. "It was a pretty simple process."
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